|From early on, the BJP had realised that it could compensate for its lack of organisational strength at the booth level by weakening the Trinamool’s structure and at the same time taking advantage of the polarisation on religious lines precipitated by the ruling party’s politics. The Trinamool Congress(TMC) openly indulged in minority appeasement politics and carried out atrocities against opposition party cadres, a legacy of the left party imitated by the TMC. The clean image of Mamata was further dented by multiple scams and rampant corruption. These issues created a situation that paved the way for the BJP’s rise in Bengal. |
The strategy seems to have paid dividends. The BJP has not only emerged as the main opposition to the Trinamool in the 2021 Assembly election but also managed to project itself as having a strong chance of winning the election. BJP won 18 seats from earlier 2 seats and Mamata Banerjee got 22 seats only. BJP came very close to TMC in vote share. BJP’s success in Bengal most likely came at the expense of the vote share of the CPM-led Left Front, which ruled the state for 34 years. However, things have changed as large chunks of CPM and Congress vote shares have been consolidated into BJP’s vote share.
Remember in 2019 the TMC had many big leaders who are now with the BJP. Their muscle power also came to BJP along with them thus reducing booth capturing chances by TMC drastically and also increased BJP’s chances to defend booths multifold times. These ex TMC leaders of Mamata will bring workers, followers, and voters with them. Thus adding hugely to bjp’s votes and reducing that of TMC.
Mamata did not implement many schemes of the central government. Thus keeping poor strata of the society away from many social welfare benefits. Farmers are not getting benefits offered by GOI. Even in the health care sector, the universal health insurance scheme for the poor launched by the central government called the Ayushman Bharat is not implemented.
Mamata’s minority appeasement has alienated a large section of Hindus. Anger is brewing up in Hindus because of refusing Maa Durga visarjan during Muharram, her pictures of carrying out namaz, stopping chhath puja citing corona pandemic guidelines while allowing the gathering of her vote bank, the minority. State-sponsored atrocities on Hindus taking part in Durga visarjan. Pension to Imams. Opposing the “Jai Shri Ram” chant exposed her intent. Her blatant support for illegal Bangladeshi immigrants has been thoroughly exposed as she declared war against CAA. Her dream of a bigger Bengal which will lead to an existential crisis for Bengali Hindus is corroborated by series of anti-Hindu acts.
Moreover, the JOSH/Enthusiasm is very high among BJP cadres as compared to TMC. Workers are a very important factor in any election. It is finally they who bring out voters from home. If they are inactive or have no motivation, they will not produce the desired result. BJP karyakartas are driven by a cause to revive Bengal as a powerhouse of the east and also to implement the party’s consistent slogan, “justice for all, appeasement of none”.
Elections are to be held in 8 stages thus making it easy to control areas going for election. Again reducing chances of booth capturing and rigging by TMC and others. Earlier voters dare not raise their voices if their votes were hijacked. Anyone who raised his voice lost his life. Now BJP voters have become bold and started opposing the wrongdoings of the ruling party. Thus reducing chances of bogus voting.
Now let us come to one of the most important factor, the minority votes. I do not worry about them at all even though Bengal is one state where they are estimated to be around 30%. They are not evenly distributed and vary from 80% maximum to 10%. They can make an impact when they are 35% or more. That is the only way they can affect around 100 seats. This figure may change, you have the liberty of choosing your number however that is not going to make any significant change in actual computation.
Yes, whenever the so-called ultra secular minority community voters are 35% or more and indulge in strategic voting it is almost impossible for BJP to win. The twist in this story is that there would be three parties or fronts to grab minority’s votes namely Mamata, Owaisi, and Tri-payee Baishakhi wala front – comprising of the Left, Congress, and a radical leader who openly declared his wish for the death of 20 to 40 crore Indians on record.
Whatever solution or compromise is reached, minority voters are going to get divided. To further explain it, the Owaisi factor is a win-win for the BJP. His mere presence will consolidate Hindu votes towards the BJP. No nationalist Hindu is going to vote for him. So he can’t take even one vote from the BJP. On the contrary, he will bring more votes for the BJP. Some Hindus who are at the moment on the side of the TMC will also vote for the BJP.
Tri-Payee Baishakhi wala front is going to get their traditional votes plus some minority votes (again dividing Minority votes). BJP’s voters are not going to vote for them. The ongoing internal fight on this front will harm them from within. Now comes the TMC. Whatever remained of minority votes plus Mamata’s blind followers will vote for the TMC.
TMC (or any other party or front ) will not dare to carry out booth capturing, rigging, or hijacking of voting. The other three will resist immediately.
Election Commission has started to transfer Mamata loyal officers away from poll duty. BJP has established contacts with some social groups (caste) like Rajvanshi. They have a strong presence in northern Bengal particularly in the Coochbehar district bordering Assam. Gurkhas are already against Mamta because of her foolishness. Their area is already a BJP stronghold. Now enters the neutral paramilitary forces. Each booth will be defended by them ensuring free and fair voting. The BJP hardcore workers and those added from the TMC will monitor each booth. The BJP has already started this a long time back. The BJP usually planned and implemented groundwork in advance before the major election. In short, the groundwork has been done and it has started giving dividends already.
The Icing on the cake is Mamata’s infamous unpredictable tantrum. There is no need to elaborate as the media exposed it several times. Add to this the big Modi Ji factor. The charismatic leader of Bharat whose mere presence at the last minute could swing voters. I can safely assume Motabhai ‘s secret plan B. If BJP does not get a simple majority, some MLAs from the TMC will defect en mass so some will be kept in TMC for this very reason. The safe estimate is around 160 seats for the BJP+ with an error margin of plus or minus 10 seats.
It should be noted that BJP was ahead in 122 assembly seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. To wrap up the article I stick my neck out that come 2nd(Second) of May 2021 West Bengal will shine. In Hindi let me end with this line “Sonar Bangla Banega Avashya Banega”. Period.